Toronto Maple Leafs Miss Marner & Didn’t Do Enough to Replace Him – Hockey Writers –
These are not the same toronto maple leaves of the past. They got off to a slow start, posting a 9-9-3 record in their first 21 games, putting them in a playoff spot. There are many things that go wrong with maple leaves. Damage, damage power, and more defense. They all contribute to things, but it’s also a matter of skill and pace.
Foot speed and playing a slower style of hockey have issues, but it goes on much more than that (From ‘Toronto Maple Leafs after 20 games: why their lack of speed is a big problem’ – athlete, 11/19/2025). The maple leaves miss Mitch Marner a lot. This doesn’t mean they have to re-sign him. It was time for that marriage to end, but it didn’t do much to restore him to his position, and they felt that he didn’t have his skills in the top six.
Maple leaves can use marner play
The Maple Leafs’ Defense is a problem. They had one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, and it affected their consistency. However, it’s hard to ignore what it takes for someone like Marner to step out of the lineup, especially with injuries to Auston Matthews and, more recently, the shy Matthews.
Although Marner Skating’s top speed ranked in the 97th percentile last season, historically, he is not the fastest skater. But regardless, Marner’s ability to process the game and play quickly is something the Maple Leafs could use on their roster today.
It’s not just Marner’s skill that the maple leaves miss. In his last season in Toronto, the maple leaves produced 2.78 expected goals per 60 minutes when he was on the ice 5 with Five-to-Five. He is one of the best opponents in the NHL, so it is not surprising that the maple leaves missed him to start the season.
They always – did it and failed their opponents when Marner was on the ice. Their scoring chance and share of the top chances were 9.5 percent and higher when Marner was not on the ICE last season. The same is true of their XG component (XG%), which was about 5 percent when it was off ice.
Marner was a 100 point man. That obviously doesn’t grow on trees, but it also makes them harder to replace. Maybe next to something that doesn’t happen instead. Still, it’s hard to look at what general manager Brad has done since the end of last year and think he’s emphasized being more efficient.
Additions As of the last trade deadline leading players include Scott Blateton, Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua, Matias Maccelli, and Brandon Carlo. Laughter turned to disaster as the maple leaves found him, while Roy and Joshua struggled through their first seasons with the team.
Maccelli has played very well thus far and looks poised for a 40-50 point season, but that’s only part of what Marner brings to the table. No one expects to hold out for another 100-point scorer to replace Marner, especially since free agency appears to be dead, but it appeared to be meaty and quick.
Matthews’ decline has become more noticeable without Marner
One talking point of Maple Leaf Stress Fasts that may not be discussed enough is Matthew’s decline. Another way to tell when a player might fall is how much time they spend in the offensive zone, as Justin Bourne highlighted in a recent episode of Sportneet:
Slowly but surely, Matthews is spending less and less time in the offensive zone. Some of the metrics used in his article were the fastest shooting speed and the highest skating speed, which was rejected by Matthew. You might be wondering what Marner is supposed to do? They were frequent linemates last season, logging more than 766 minutes together.
Marner was a key factor in Matthews’ success, too. As linemates, they both had an XG% of 54.7 percent and a goal differential of +13 (44-31). Matthews spent just 186 minutes away from Marner in the 2024-25 season, but the numbers have been solid. XG% dropped by 45.76 percent, and his new goals share high chances were underwater.
Related: Kypreos’ theory about the Auston Matthews Traderation may have
Does this mean Marner managed Mathewts last season? I think the sample away from Marner is too small to know for sure, but it’s enough to suspect it might be. As Bourne’s chart shows above, Mathew’s offensive time has been declining for several seasons, so Marner was there to cover, at least last season.
Now, without that playmaker, Matthews’ decline is even more noticeable. Knies, who has been one of the most common matwethemates this season, is a good player, but he does not have the playing power to drive Marner. That can certainly make a big difference in how they do at five-on-five.
Where do the maple leaves come from here?
Maple leaves are in a dangerous place. American Thanksgiving is less than a week away, and we know that’s an important consideration for the season. About 75 percent of the teams in the American Thanksgiving field end up earning a POSTSeason berth. If they don’t keep up the pace in the next few days, things are going to get a little dicier than they already are.
Another problem facing the Maple Leafs is that they don’t have their first pick unless they have a top five pick. So what do you do when you have a lemon? If the season really goes off the rails, sell what you can and I did a one-year tank to ensure that the top five picks would be a good move. Get the top pick in a loaded draft, and look to bounce back in 2026-27.
Another option is to throw in all your chips and make the playoffs. That might not be the worst decision, given the state of the Atlantic division, but they need to get their priorities straight.
It’s fair to say they lack the ability Marner has given the top six. Humility can’t guide many Adftons or ROYS, and if Matthews really refuses and isn’t as bad as he used to be, they will need to counter their line with five good five players.
It’s almost impossible to replace a 100-point scorer. But adding more goals and getting goals and getting a little money to make up for what they lost in Marner should be a priority in the coming weeks and months.
Advanced stats from Natural’s Stat Trick, NHL’s Edge
