Tonight, February 26, 2025, the footballing world turns its eyes to Reale Arena in San Sebastian, where Real Sociedad hosts Real Madrid in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals. Scheduled for a 9:30 PM CET kick-off (12:30 PM PST), this match marks a pivotal moment in the 2024–25 Copa del Rey campaign. With the second leg set for the Santiago Bernabéu in early March, both teams know that securing an advantage tonight could be the difference between reaching the final on April 26, 2025, at La Cartuja in Seville and bowing out in disappointment.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Beyond the chance to lift the Copa del Rey trophy—a competition steeped in Spanish football tradition—the winner of this two-legged tie will earn a spot in the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League league phase and a berth in the 2026 Supercopa de España.
For Real Madrid, with their 20 Copa del Rey titles and a relentless pursuit of silverware, this is another opportunity to cement their dominance. For Real Sociedad, champions in 2020 and perennial underdogs against the giants, it’s a chance to defy expectations and reclaim cup glory. This preview explores every facet of the matchup, from form and tactics to key players and historical rivalries, setting the stage for what promises to be an enthralling night of football.
The Stakes and Context of the Copa del Rey Semifinals
The Copa del Rey, Spain’s oldest and most storied knockout competition, has reached its business end. With only four teams remaining—Real Sociedad, Real Madrid, and either Barcelona or Atlético Madrid battling in the other semifinal—this stage is where legends are made and dreams are shattered. For Real Madrid, a club synonymous with success, the Copa del Rey is a chance to add to their trophy haul, though it’s often overshadowed by their La Liga and Champions League pursuits. Their last triumph in the competition came in 2023, a 2-1 victory over Osasuna, and manager Carlo Ancelotti will be keen to repeat that success.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, views the Copa del Rey as their golden ticket. Their 2020 triumph—secured via a 1-0 win over Athletic Bilbao in a delayed final—remains a high watermark for the club, ending a 34-year wait for major silverware. Under Imanol Alguacil, they’ve embraced their role as cup specialists, often punching above their weight against Spain’s elite. Tonight’s first leg at Reale Arena offers a chance to strike first, leveraging their formidable home support against a Real Madrid side that, while exceptional, arrives with vulnerabilities.
The broader context adds intrigue. The victor of this tie will face either Barcelona or Atlético Madrid in the final, setting up a potential Clasico or a grudge match with Diego Simeone’s men. For both teams, the psychological boost of a strong result tonight could ripple through their domestic and European campaigns, making this more than just a semifinal—it’s a statement of intent.
Recent Form: Contrasting Fortunes
Real Madrid: A Juggernaut in Full Flight
Real Madrid enters this match as La Liga’s pacesetters, sitting atop the table with 54 points from 25 matches as of mid-February 2025. Their season has been defined by attacking brilliance and resilience, with a goal difference of +31 (54 goals scored, 23 conceded) showcasing their potency. A recent 4-0 dismantling of Osasuna on February 15, 2025, underlined their domestic dominance, while a 3-1 Champions League victory over Manchester City on February 19 saw Kylian Mbappe announce himself with a hat-trick. That win, coupled with earlier triumphs over Bayern Munich and Liverpool, signals a team peaking at the right time.
Ancelotti has masterfully integrated new signings like Mbappe into a squad already brimming with talent—Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Jude Bellingham have all thrived alongside veterans like Luka Modric. However, their defense has been a concern. Injuries to David Alaba (adductor), Antonio Rüdiger (hamstring), Eder Militao (long-term), and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois have forced Ancelotti to improvise, often deploying midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni as a center-back. While their attack has papered over these cracks, a stern test like tonight could expose frailties.
Real Sociedad: Home Heroes with Cup Pedigree
Real Sociedad’s season tells a different story. Ninth in La Liga with 34 points from 25 matches, their campaign has been inconsistent, with a goal difference of zero (23 scored, 23 conceded) reflecting a balanced but underwhelming output. A 2-1 loss to Osasuna on February 2 was a low point, but they’ve since rebounded, notably with a 2-0 home win over Real Betis on February 16. Their strength lies at Reale Arena, where they’ve won five consecutive matches across all competitions, including victories over Leganes, Espanyol, and Getafe.
In the Copa del Rey, Sociedad has shone, dispatching lower-tier sides like Jove Español and navigating tougher tests with grit. Mikel Oyarzabal, with 9 goals this season, has been their talisman, while Takefusa Kubo—on loan from Real Madrid—adds flair. Injuries to Beñat Turrientes (calf) and doubts over others threaten their midfield depth, but Imanol’s pragmatic approach has kept them competitive. Their home form and cup nous make them a live underdog tonight.
Historical Rivalry: A Lopsided Ledger
The head-to-head record heavily favors Real Madrid, who have won 21 of the last 30 meetings across all competitions. Real Sociedad has managed just 5 victories in that span, with 4 draws rounding out the tally. Recent encounters reinforce this trend: Madrid won 2-0 at Reale Arena in La Liga in September 2024, with Vinicius and Bellingham scoring, while their last Copa del Rey meeting at the Bernabéu in 2023 ended 2-1 to Madrid.
Yet, Real Sociedad has had their moments. Their most famous triumph came in February 2020, a 4-3 quarterfinal upset at the Bernabéu, with Oyarzabal and Alexander Isak starring in a seven-goal thriller. That result propelled them to the 2020 title and lingers as a reminder of their potential to shock. At home, Sociedad has won twice in the last decade against Madrid, both in cup ties, giving their fans hope of another memorable night.
This historical imbalance adds a layer of intrigue. Real Madrid’s dominance is clear, but Sociedad’s occasional heroics—especially in San Sebastian—suggest they’re capable of rewriting the script.
Tactical Analysis: How the Game Could Unfold
Real Madrid’s Approach Possession and Pace
Ancelotti is likely to deploy a 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing possession and rapid transitions. A possible lineup includes:
- Goalkeeper: Andriy Lunin
- Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Nacho, Aurelien Tchouameni, Ferland Mendy
- Midfielders: Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Fede Valverde
- Forwards: Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe, Rodrygo
Madrid’s game plan will hinge on their attacking trident. Mbappe, with his blistering pace and clinical finishing, will roam centrally, while Vinicius and Rodrygo stretch the flanks. Modric’s vision and Valverde’s energy will control the midfield, feeding the forwards with precision. Defensively, the absence of natural center-backs could see Tchouameni drop deep, with Carvajal and Mendy tasked with containing Sociedad’s wingers. Set pieces may be a weakness, given their makeshift backline.
Real Sociedad’s Strategy: Compact and Counter
Imanol Alguacil will also favor a 4-3-3, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick breaks. A potential lineup is:
- Goalkeeper: Alex Remiro
- Defenders: Hamari Traore, Igor Zubeldia, Robin Le Normand, Aihen Muñoz
- Midfielders: Martin Zubimendi, Brais Mendez, Ander Barrenetxea
- Forwards: Takefusa Kubo, Mikel Oyarzabal, Umar Sadiq
Sociedad will sit deep, compressing space to frustrate Madrid’s attackers, then spring forward with Kubo and Oyarzabal leading counters. Zubimendi, a metronome in midfield, will aim to disrupt Modric’s rhythm, while Brais Mendez provides creativity. Defensively, Zubeldia and Le Normand must be watertight against Mbappe, with Traore and Muñoz containing the wings. Set pieces and long balls to Sadiq could exploit Madrid’s depleted defense.
Key Tactical Battles
- Mbappe vs. Zubeldia/Le Normand: Can Sociedad’s center-backs neutralize Madrid’s superstar?
- Zubimendi vs. Modric: A duel of composure vs. experience that could dictate possession.
- Kubo vs. Mendy: Kubo’s trickery against Mendy’s physicality might unlock the game.
Key Players: Stars to Watch
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappe: The French phenom, with a hat-trick against City, is in irresistible form. His pace, movement, and finishing make him the biggest threat.
- Vinicius Junior: A dribbling wizard, his flair on the left could torment Traore.
- Luka Modric: At 39, the Croatian maestro remains Madrid’s heartbeat, orchestrating play with elegance.
Real Sociedad
- Mikel Oyarzabal: Sociedad’s captain and top scorer, his knack for big moments is unmatched.
- Takefusa Kubo: Facing his parent club, the Japanese winger’s speed and skill could punish Madrid.
- Martin Zubimendi: The midfield anchor, his composure under pressure will be vital.
Injury Concerns: A Game of Depth
Real Madrid’s injury list is a headache for Ancelotti. Alaba’s adductor issue, Rüdiger’s hamstring strain, and the long-term absences of Militao and Courtois leave their defense thin. Nacho and Tchouameni will need to step up, while Lunin deputizes in goal with aplomb. Sociedad fares slightly better, but Turrientes’ calf injury and doubts over others could strain their midfield. Both managers will lean on squad depth, with youth prospects like Real Madrid’s Raul Asencio or Sociedad’s Jon Pacheco potentially in line for minutes.
Statistical Snapshot
Here’s a look at both teams’ La Liga stats as of matchday 25:
| Team | Position | Points | Matches | Wins | Draws | Losses | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2 | 54 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 23 | +31 |
| Real Sociedad | 9 | 34 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 23 | 0 |
Madrid’s attacking output dwarfs Sociedad’s, but the latter’s defensive record matches their goals conceded, hinting at resilience.
Prediction: A Tight Affair
Real Madrid’s form and quality make them favorites, but Sociedad’s home advantage and cup pedigree suggest a close contest. A 2-1 win for Madrid feels plausible—Mbappe and Vinicius scoring, with Oyarzabal pulling one back late. However, if Sociedad exploits Madrid’s defensive woes, a 1-1 draw or even a shock 2-1 upset isn’t unthinkable. The tie will remain alive for the second leg, but Madrid’s edge in firepower should see them leave San Sebastian with a narrow lead.
Conclusion: A Night of Drama Awaits
Tonight’s clash at Reale Arena is more than a semifinal—it’s a collision of ambition, history, and tactical intrigue. Real Madrid’s star-studded attack faces a stern test from Real Sociedad’s dogged resistance, with injuries adding unpredictability. Will Mbappe’s magic prevail, or can Oyarzabal inspire an upset? With fans roaring and the stakes sky-high, this promises to be a Copa del Rey classic. Kick-off can’t come soon enough.
