TURIN, ITALY – APRIL 12: Teun Koopmeiners of Juventus celebrates scoring his team’s first goal with teammates during the Serie A match between Juventus and Lecce at Allianz Stadium on April 12, 2025 in Turin, Italy. (Photo by Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images)
Six teams still have a mathematical chance of claiming the final Champions League spot in Serie A, but there is a scenario that could lead to Juventus securing fourth place in the standings this weekend. Here is what needs to happen.
There will be four Italian teams competing in the Champions League in 2025-26. Napoli, Inter and Atalanta have already booked their places. Inter and Napoli will finish the season in the top two, and Atalanta are guaranteed to finish in third place regardless of results over the last two matches.
That leaves Juventus (fourth, 64 points), Lazio (fifth, 64 points), Roma (fifth, 63 points), Bologna (sixth, 62 points), Milan (eighth, 60 points) and Fiorentina (ninth, 59 points) all with a mathematical chance of finishing in the top four.
What Juventus need to claim Champions League football this weekend
EPA-EFE/JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BOTT
Juventus are the only team in with a possibility of claiming fourth place this weekend, in the penultimate round of Serie A fixtures.
In order for that to happen, Juventus need to beat Udinese, and for all of Lazio, Roma and Bologna to lose. If any of those three teams draw or win this weekend, the Champions League race will go into the final day of the season.
On this weekend’s schedule, Juventus will play Udinese, Lazio will play away against Inter, Roma will host Milan at the Stadio Olimpico and Bologna will play away against Fiorentina. All of those games will kick off at 19.45 BST on Sunday.
Why only Juventus can claim fourth place in Serie A this weekend
It is crucial to remember that teams that finish the Serie A season level on points will be separated by head-to-head as the first determining factor, then goal difference in head-to-head matches and then overall goal difference. (The only exception to this rule is if the teams in first and second, or the teams in 17th and 18th finish level on points. That would lead to a play-off to determine the title or the final relegation spot.)
If Juventus beat Udinese and Lazio, Roma and Bologna lose, the Bianconeri will have a four point advantage over Roma and Bologna with one game left to play.
The Bianconeri will only be three points clear of Lazio in this scenario, but Juventus will trump the Biancocelesti on head-to-head after a 1-0 victory in October and a 1-1 draw last weekend.
If Lazio or Roma win or draw this weekend, or if Bologna win, there will still be multiple teams within three points of fourth place heading into the final weekend, regardless of Juventus’s result against Udinese.
