Today, March 23, 2025, Germany host Italy at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund for the UEFA Nations League quarter-final second leg. The German team secured their lead after prevailing 2-1 at the San Siro Stadium of Milan during March 20 games. The team seeks a final place in the semi-finals against Denmark or Portugal. The situation has become challenging for Italy because they must achieve more than two goals to maintain their spot in the competition. The upcoming confrontation between these teams brings top talent and intense competition to the field. The June final host selection bonus heightens the contest between the teams which motivates the competition.
First Leg Recap
Let’s rewind to Thursday’s action. The initial fixture took place at San Siro where Italy scored their first goal in the first half. During the ninth minute Sandro Tonali managed to score the first goal after a quick attacking transition. However, Germany fought back. The German team tied up the match through Tim Kleindienst after he recovered aребall during the 49th minute. The German score leader Leon Goretzka headed a goal in the 76th minute after receiving a perfect assist from Joshua Kimmich. The visitors won despite firing four shots on target compared to Italy’s six. Julian Nagelsmann leaves Italy with an edge in the score through his team’s performance while maintaining a position for an exciting final today.
Team Form and Momentum
Germany’s Dominant Run
Germany approach this match with confidence. The team finished Group A3 undefeated due to their six wins while scoring 18 goals. The German team demonstrated their offensive strength when they defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina 7-0 back in November. Thus they have secured 11 home games in Nations League competition by losing only one match while their three home victories this season remained clean sheets. The home pitch of Signal Iduna Park has brought players of the team 18 victories from their 22 competitions thus far. The German national squad starts this match with maximum driving force behind them.
Italy’s Fighting Spirit
Despite their current success Italy present threats to other opponents. Their Group A2 position as runners-up reflects well because they secured four wins out of six matches. Among their Matches of 2019 a key moment occurred when they defeated France 3-1 at the home stadium of Paris. The November French victory in Italian soil led to the nation relinquishing their Group A2 leadership position. The team has secured victories in all four of their last Nations League matches while showing strong offensive performance. German faces in Dortmund challenge Italy to their maximum potential. The Italy team of Luciano Spalletti demonstrates superior performance in high-stress situations thus becoming an unpredictable force.
Team News and Lineups
Germany’s Squad Depth
Germany has experienced continuity in their team structure during their transition focused on group developments. Following the first leg Nagelsmann did not have any fresh injuries to deal with. The manager is likely to make minor changes to his starting eleven. The late substitute Nico Schlotterbeck produced an impact in his appearance as he competes for the starting position previously held by David Raum. Kleindienst’s net cruise could compel the manager to substitute Jonathan Burkardt with him as the forward. The central trio of Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sané and Goretzka maintains their core position while Kimmich and Pascal Groß oversee the midfield activities. Goalkeeper Oliver Baumann starts another game for the Club after goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen suffered an injury.
Italy’s Adjustments
Meanwhile, Italy face choices. Gianluigi Donnarumma serves in the goal position despite surrendering two goals during the previous match. Ever since Dimarco’s injury kept Udogie on left-back duty he will have to play against Sané. The outstanding performances of Tonali secure his starting position alongside Barella along with Rovella in the midfield area. Mateo Retegui stands as a potential replacement for Moise Kean at the forward position due to the 22 goals the striker scored for Atalanta this campaign. Davide Frattesi provides midfield defense along with movement as an option for the team. The first team positions in defense are occupied by Alessandro Bastoni and Riccardo Calafiori.
Tactical Breakdown
Germany’s High Press
Tactically, Germany favor an aggressive 4-2-3-1. Nagelsmann drives the team to advance both toward their opponents’ half and apply aggressive attacking action. During the first match the German team exploded during the second half which ultimately altered the outcome of the game. During today’s match Kimmich and Groß should distribute ball possession to their attacking wing players Sané and Musiala respectively. The intense Defensive position of the Italian team led to Tonali’s first-minute goal which exposed their high defensive line. The German team plans to establish dominance at the start then find opportunities from Italian defense pushing up to pressure them.
Italy’s Counter Threat
Italian team members implement a system that integrates strict organization alongside exciting attacking approaches. The Italian manager periodically employs either a 4-3-3 or a 3-5-2 system according to match developments. The players from Milan launched an aggressive start yet eventually declined. The team will position deeper to draw German players out of midfield before having Udogie and Retegui make attacking runs. Barella possesses the ability to penetrate German defensive positions in a comparable manner to Modrić. Their defensive performance demands improvement due to their previous two goals conceded. Thus, balance becomes key.
Historical Rivalry
Next, let’s consider their past. Germany and Italy share one of football’s fiercest rivalries. The historical record shows Italy has triumphed in 15 out of 37 matches when facing Germany who won 9 times. Germany has secured victories in both of their last home matches against Italy and triumphed by a score of 5-2 in 2022. Germany defeated Italy by a score of 5-2 in 2022 while Musiala showcased his skills during that match which became a harbinger of his future success. Italy sealed their victory in Germany during the 2006 World Cup semifinal by taking a 2-0 win in extra time. Nagelsmann expressed his goal to create football history before the match according to his pre-match media appearances.
Last 5 Head-to-Head Stats
Here’s their recent record:
- March 20, 2025: Italy 1-2 Germany (Nations League)
- June 14, 2022: Germany 5-2 Italy (Nations League)
- June 4, 2016: Germany 0-0 Italy (Friendly)
- Germany drew 1-1 against Italy on July 2, 2016 during Euro 2016 before Italy won by scoring penalties.
- March 29, 2016: Germany 4-1 Italy (Friendly)
Germany currently dominates at home stadium matches while Italy maintained dominance throughout their earlier history.
Key Players to Watch
Germany’s Stars
For Germany, Musiala stands out. The Bundesliga player ignites offensive moves through creative passing and agile ball control during both matches. Goretzka demonstrated his full recovery by scoring the winning goal during the game in Milan which showcases his ability to bring aerial power together with high motor output. Through their exceptional passing and his team-oriented leadership Kimmich enhances the German side. The match will become challenging for Italy when Germany starts playing effectively.
Italy’s Hopes
The Italian national team relies heavily on Tonali because of his essential qualities. The German midfielder showcased his brilliance by scoring early in his previous match and takes 1.22 shots in each ninety-minute period. Through his tactical vision Barella generates scoring possibilities and Udogie’s dangerous pace down the left side puts pressure on Germany’s right defensive positions. The potential matchup of Retegui as starter provides Italy with a possibility to win if his finishing skills prove effective.
Stats and Trends
Now, let’s dive into numbers. Germany achieved an average score of 2.3 goals in their previous ten contests and kept their goal empty on five occasions. Italy score 1.8 but concede 1.2. It is noteworthy that both teams managed to score in three out of their last five home matches by Germany and five out of their six away matches by Italy. Germany has recorded six out of their previous ten games that resulted in more than 2.5 goals total. So, goals seem likely today.
Match Conditions
A clear ambiance with expected temperatures at 12°C awaits Dortmund fans at kick-off time of 3:45 PM ET. The Signal Iduna Park playing surface suits Germany’s quick attacking style but Italian counterattacks could find success there as well. The 82,000-member-strong Yellow Wall create an unrelenting atmosphere which will provide early pressure for Italy.
Prediction and Betting Tips
Germany have stronger chances to win based on their forecasts. Their unbeaten home run and first-leg win boost their case. Musiala along with Kleindienst will probably find the net for Germany by capitalizing on Italy launching attacks from their defensive position. The away form of Italy along with their goal-scoring requirements indicate they will score despite these challenges. Their successful 4-1 victory during their match in Israel demonstrates their ability to perform remarkably away from home. A 2-1 victory for Germany seems possible while the match scores would total 4-2 in their favor based on current odds. Germany’s play will result in either a 2-2 draw that gives them passage or they will advance through a total victory of 2-1.
The betting odds for Germany to succeed while both teams score stands at 4.25. The anytime scorer odds for Musiala stand at 2.50 but Tonali offers 4.00. According to betting trends the market value of over 2.5 goals stands at -130. This competition presents many options for fans as well as punters to consider.
Final Thoughts
The match presents enormous competition issues for both teams. Germany has two targets in this match which are securing a spot in the semi-finals and obtaining the hosting privilege for the finals. Italy aims to push beyond their tournament to strike a win against a powerful rival. Regardless, both promise a spectacle. With kickoff nearing, excitement peaks. Germany’s domestic strength appears secure but does Italy possess enough power to challenge them in the next few minutes? The outcome will be revealed in Dortmund within the near future.
