Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
The match will start at 9:30 AM EST while the corresponding UTC time is 2:30 PM and CET time stands at 3:30 PM.
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany
Competition: Bundesliga
On March 1, 2025, RB Leipzig hosts Mainz 05 at the Red Bull Arena for a match which highlights their opposing standings in the Bundesliga season. RB Leipzig uses Matchday 24 on February 27, 2025 to pursue a comeback from their poor season alongside Mainz who continue to improve beyond preseason predictions. The match ensures attention from Marco Rose as Leipzig fight to recover from their declining form which threatens Champions League qualification despite Mainz 05 pursuing their first European spot under Jan Siewert. The matchup promises to deliver tactical tensions together with emotional consequences as well as competitive fights which potentially determine the outcomes of both clubs’ seasons.
Context and Stakes
At the beginning of the 2024/25 Bundesliga season RB Leipzig maintained an active unbeaten streak that granted them the top spot after their first six matches while accumulating 14 points. Three goals scored in succession by Lois Openda plus Xavi Simons led RB Leipzig to a 3-2 victory against Bayer Leverkusen on Matchday 2.
Their current form shows a significant decline since the beginning of late February 2025. According to various X posts together with bundesliga.com reports Leipzig has obtained one victory while facing seven Bundesliga games since February 23rd. The team shared a 2-2 draw with Heidenheim before losing control of a 3-0 lead to Bochum in a 3-3 result throughout the month. Sports Mole predictions show Leipzigияэд positions at sixth place with 38 points behind Bayern Munich by 14 points thus ending their title prospects. They earned relief through a midweek DFB-Pokal quarter-final victory against Wolfsburg which ended with a 1-0 score on February 26 (X posts show) yet their consistent performance remains out of reach. The current game stands as an absolute requirement to qualify for the top-four standings of the league.
Historical Head-to-Head
The intense rivalry between USE and Mainz started when Leipzig joined the Bundesliga in 2016. Leipzig leads the all-time match record against Mainz with an 8-5 advantage out of seventeen encounters since their ascent to the Bundesliga in 2016. Leipzig has won their matches against Mainz on eight occasions but Mainz has prevailed three times in the past five games securing their wins at the Red Bull Arena in April 2023 with a 3-0 margin and November 4, 2024 at the MEWA Arena with a 2-0 victory. The sixth match of the season turned into victory for Mainz when Lee Jae-sung and Leandro Barreiro scored while Leipzig squandered their endless chances. Mainz’s recent performances against Leipzig stand as the highlight for them considering the 8-0 victory in November 2019 while the Red Bulls have recorded only one defeat in their last five matches (a 4-1 loss in May 2022).
Leipzig defend their home turf well because Mainz defeated them by a 0-3 score at the Red Bull Arena during 2023. In the last three matched home games Mainz maintained dominance as one match reached a tied score each in March 2024 and October 2024. Statistical records show these teams have delivered more than 2.5 goals in each of their previous seven meetings according to WhoScored while maintaining impressive scores. Mainz continues to disturb Leipzig’s defensive pressure through their aggressive counterattacks which poses additional challenges for another competitive match.
Mainz 05 achieved remarkable transformation in their fortunes throughout the current season. Local newspapers noted the turning point of Mainz 05’s season after Jan Siewert led them to defeat Leipzig 2-0 on Matchday 10 during their continued fight against relegation. Sports Mole released their article on February 27 to document Mainz 05 as they held fifth rank with 38 points because of their better goal differential after a 2-0 triumph against St. Pauli. Jae-sung Lee’s squad achieved its highest potential through reaching three league wins from five matches. Mainz owns a direct opportunity to obtain Europa League qualification because they currently stand only one point behind Freiburg. A Leipzig defeat in this matchup will boost Mainz’s Europa League hopes and make their journey more challenging for their opponents.
Team News
RB Leipzig
The Pokal victory against Heidenheim in midweek provided some positive news to RB Leipzig who have been worsened by their long list of player injuries. Péter Gulácsi will remain in the starting goalkeeper role because his decade of experience will be crucial following Heidenheim scoring two goals in the first 13 minutes. Lutsharel Geertruida along with Willi Orbán and Castello Lukeba would likely complete the defensive trio as Benjamin Henrichs faces an injury risk (Sports Mole) and David Raum (ankle) suffers from an ankle issue. Josko Gvardiol’s departure in 2023 still lingers, but Orbán’s leadership steadies the ship. The defensive foundation of Haidara and Kampl (health permitting from groin injury) enables Simons to play freely in an attacking position. Defenders Benjamin Šeško and Lois Openda position as the leading goal threats but Yussuf Poulsen faces a weekend absence while Antonio Nusa remains out of reach. The health status of Christoph Baumgartner (X update) needs evaluation before deciding whether he can start in the upcoming match.
Ranger Gulácsi will be the starting goalkeeper to partner Geertruida and Orbán and Lukeba in defense while Baku and Haidara and Kampl and Raum (if fit, else Klostermann) form the midfield with Simons on attack and Šeško linking up with Openda.
Injury Doubts: Henrichs, Raum, Baumgartner, Poulsen, Schlager (knee), Ouedraogo (knee).
Rotation Risks: Moderate, post-Pokal exertion.
Mainz 05
Mainz enters this match while showing good strength but several key players face upcoming games after serving their suspension and ongoing injury treatments. Robin Zentner defends the goal and generated excitement in November with his save against Xavi. The defense from Mainz will run with Hanche-Olsen at center-back alongside Jenz while Caci and Danny da Costa maintain the right flank. Midfielder Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri manage the playmaking duties and Leandro Barreiro’s dynamic activity proves essential following his successful November goal. Player Jae-sung Lee continues his excellent run of form to help forward Jonathan Burkardt through midfield while Silvan Widmer provides veteran support from right-back. The situation with Niklas Tauer’s fitness remains unstable because Karim Onisiwo is currently undergoing late tests for his thigh injury.
Head coach Davis has selected Zentner as goalkeeper with da Costa, Hanche-Olsen, Jenz and Caci forming the defensive line while Sano and Amiri play as central midfielders beside Widmer, Lee, Barreiro form an attacking trio to support Burkardt up front.
Injury Doubts: Bell (out), Tauer, Onisiwo.
Key Absentees: Kohr (suspended).
Tactical Preview
RB Leipzig
The tactical system adopted by Marco Rose enables high pressing through a 3-4-1-2 formation but also includes 4-2-2-2 set-ups that focuses on vertical movements. Simons distributes the ball behind the defensive pair of Šeško and Openda to generate space through which the team attacks Mainz’s defense by sending da Costa and Caci. According to Bundesliga stats Leipzig has maintained possession 62% of the time thus far yet they have scored 15 goals in their six home matches this season. The partnership of Orbán and Lukeba presents a dangerous threat through set-piece situations primarily because Mainz lacks Kohr’s aerial capabilities. The playing side of Mainz exhibits defensive weakness after giving up 15 goals during their recent six-game sequence prior to this current stronger period. If Haidara and Kampl fail to shut down Amiri and Lee then Mainz will succeed in launching counters.
Mainz 05
The 4-2-3-1 formation that Jan Siewert uses demonstrated its counterattacking and team-oriented style during their successful November victory. Sano and Amiri operate at a defensive depth that enables Lee and Barreiro to advance forward with Burkardt along the center to disrupt stop-and-start opposition defenses. Mainz demonstrates their road attack prowess through seven away points in nine matches (per Sports Mole) as shown by their 2-0 Heidenheim success on February 16. The team will give Leipzig up to 40% ball possession while depending on Zentner’s goal-saving abilities followed by aggressive counterattacks through Widmer and Caci. To prevent Openda from scoring the defensive pair of Jenz and Hanche-Olsen should not allow fouls around their penalty area as Leipzig has lethal set pieces.
Key Players to Watch
RB Leipzig
Openda has scored four times in his six-match debut season (based on Sports Mole) because of his explosive speed and deadly finishing ability (per article).
Xavi Simons made a memorable opening goal in November and earned a 7.38 rating from WhoScored during his Leverkusen match.
Our captain Willi Orbán keeps Leipzig steady with his strong headers during stressful moments on the field.
Mainz 05
Jae-sung Lee proved he could score and perform brilliantly against St. Pauli (bundesliga.com) thus becoming Mainz’s essential driving force.
Robin Zentner saves crucial penalties including the one against Xavi which helps Mainz maintain challenging position in their league table.
Jonathan Burkardt intensifies his performance in order to score more goals as he breaks through opposing defensive lines.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig
Since their undefeated streak concluded Leipzig has registered only one victory out of seven matches (W-D-L-D-D-L-D according to X sentiment and Sports Mole). A recent 1-0 Wolfsburg Pokal victory indicates improvement despite two unimpressive outcomes against Bochum and Heidenheim. Home victories have allowed Mainz to secure four wins in their last six matches while scoring fifteen goals and drawing twice in their recent three matches at Red Bull Arena.
Mainz 05
Mainz showcases inspiring form through their current record of three victories alongside one loss in the last five matches (W-L-W-D-W). Their total points accumulated reach eight through 15 matches. The 2-0 victories against Heidenheim and St. Pauli demonstrate their toughness despite their recentthree unsuccessful away matches (4-1 aggregate total) which establish their weak points. Their recent performance demonstrates a league-high habit of finding the net while playing four of their last five matches which indicates they have come to their peak form.
Prediction
Based on their excellent home performance and prolific offensive talent Leipzig are considered the betting choice (17/20 Football Whispers) but Mainz currently leads this rivalry and shows promising signs thereby making this matchup competitive (16/5 to win). The demanding midweek football schedule of Leipzig might reduce their defensive effectiveness which would provide Mainz space to execute their counter-attacking game. Leipzig’s historical record against Mainz including seven of their nine home matches featuring more than 2.5 goals indicates goals will likely occur but Mainz’s defensive determination might mute Leipzig’s goal-scoring problems shown against Heidenheim. Both teams seem likely to split the points because they have been exchanging goals throughout their encounter.
Score Prediction: RB Leipzig 2-2 Mainz 05
First Goalscorer: Lois Openda
Man of the Match: Jae-sung Lee
Conclusion
Leipzig faces a crucial Matchday 24 game against Mainz as their former glory declines while Mainz builds its position stronger. The current status of Rose’s team requires a dominant victory for redemption purposes in order to achieve season goals as Siewert’s team aims for their first European cup of the campaign. Productive encounters between Simons and Openda and Lee and Burkardt seem likely to create an exciting contest at the Red Bull Arena. The match demonstrates intense competition alongside quick play and ends in a result which tightens the Bundesliga standings in the middle of the table.
